Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates were unchanged yesterday. Many expected a hike following today’s inflation report. And I was one of them.

The markets this morning appear sluggish. And current mortgage rates may remain stable or drop a little.

Find and lock in a low rate (June 11, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Find and lock in a low rate (June 11, 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Judging by the reaction of yesterday’s markets to the Consumer Price Index, investors are not yet ready to act decisively in today’s bizarre economy. And mortgage rates could stay in their current narrow range for some time to come.

You may therefore lose or gain little by continuing to float. But you will take risks. Because most experts expect mortgage rates to start rising quite quickly.

And that’s why my personal rate lockout recommendations should stay:

• LOCK if closing 7 days
• LOCK if closing 15 days
• LOCK if closing 30 days
• LOCK if closing 45 days
• LOCK if closing 60 days

However, I do not claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out as good as mine, if not better. You can therefore choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:

• the 10-year Treasury bill yield fell to 1.46% from 1.50%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to track these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently.
• Main stock market indices were higher again at the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and increases yields and mortgage rates. The reverse can happen when the indices are lower
• Oil price held at $ 70.55 per barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
• Gold price edged down to $ 1,887 from $ 1,891 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
• CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index – fell to 54 from 57 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are generally right. But our accuracy record won’t hit its former high levels until things calm down.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to lean on them. But, with that caveat, so far today’s mortgage rates are expected to remain stable or slightly lower. However, be aware that intraday fluctuations (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature at this time.

Find and lock in a low rate (June 11, 2021)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Lily ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
5. Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Today And so on

Yes, I was surprised the markets ignored yesterday’s hotter than expected inflation report. But not shocked. Years ago, I invented a metaphor (more precisely, a comparison) to describe how they work:

The markets are like a herd of wildebeest in an African waterhole. They drink avidly while the weaker members of the perimeter are captured by predators. But then a big bull in the front sees a log floating. And he takes him for a crocodile. Then the whole herd rushes off, only stopping to think about it when it’s halfway through the Serengeti.

Now, I suspect investors might be right not to be scared off by yesterday’s report. Personally, I find the arguments of economists who predict that inflation will be transitory convincing. But a lot of people who are much smarter than me are not. And, anyway, fear trumps rationality in these situations.

What the May Consumer Price Index has been able to do is push investors closer to where they might rush. And, if and when they do, most experts think they’re much more likely to push mortgage rates up than down.

Mortgage Rates and Inflation: Why Are Rates Rising?

For more information, read our last weekend edition, which offers more space for in-depth analysis.

Recently

Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates went up.

However, most of these increases were replaced by declines in April, although these moderated in the second half of this month. Meanwhile, the month of May saw the declines outweighing the increases very slightly. Freddie’s June 10 report puts that weekly average at 2.96% (with 0.7 fees and points), down against 2.99% the previous week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting the development of the economy, real estate sector and rates. mortgage.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).

The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast was updated on May 19 and the MBA’s forecast on May 21. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14. But they are now only updated quarterly. So expect his numbers to start looking out of date soon.

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.

But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.

But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparison regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:

Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Check your new rate (June 11, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.